12 / Award watch
WHO FITSTHE TROPHY.
Every player measured against the profile of each award's last ten winners.
How the fit score works +
The profile. Each award's last ten winners (2015 to 2025, no 2020), through the regular season and title games. Each stat counts as much as those winners stood out on it, team strength included; 100 means a player stands out exactly as much as the average winner.
Fair comparisons. Stats are compared within each season, per opportunity where it matters (share of team yards, per 100 passes faced), adjusted for schedule, and small samples are pulled toward average. The Heisman, Maxwell, Walter Camp, Bednarik and Nagurski compare each player with his own position.
Track record. Each season's profile is rebuilt without that year's winner to see where he would have ranked ("Our rank"). It measures numbers, not reputation, and coverage stats for defensive backs are not public. Stats: CollegeFootballData.com. Photos: ESPN.
About this page
Who fits the trophy
The award watch compares every player with the profile of each major award's last ten winners. Instead of guessing who voters will pick, it asks which players this season look most like the players who have won it before, at the same position and with the same kind of season.
How to read it
Each award lists the players whose seasons fit its past winners most closely. A close fit means a player's season looks like a past winner's; it is not a prediction of the vote, which also weighs team success and attention. Lists update every Sunday.