Youngstown State Penguins 2026: the season story
Youngstown State is 8-2 and rated No. 114 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 113th, Résumé 86th, schedule 151st toughest. Next: home against Illinois State.
Scouting report
Why it matters. The Team Index weighs how well a team plays and what it has beaten equally, so the gap between the two ranks shows which one is carrying it. Youngstown State is No. 114 of 266 in the Team Index and 2nd of 9 in the MVFC. Power, how well it plays, ranks 113th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 86th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. Single-game ratings separate a team that wins comfortably every week from one that keeps escaping. Youngstown State wins its games by 15.8 points on average, 7th of 128 in margin among FCS teams. It is 0-1 against teams in our top 25.
How they win
Why it matters. Offense and defense are rated separately, adjusted for every opponent, so a team that wins with its defense looks different from one that wins shootouts. Its offense rates 1st of 128 in FCS (1st in the MVFC) and its defense 21st of 128 (4th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Counting points per possession instead of per game takes tempo out of the picture: a slow team is not punished for having fewer drives. Youngstown State scores 4.03 points per drive (the FCS average is 2.16), 1st of 128. Its defense allows 2.51, 82nd of 128.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Expected points per play captures what the scoreboard misses: a 9-yard gain on 3rd and 8 is worth far more than the same 9 yards on 3rd and 15. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.30 expected points per play (1st of 128) and stays on schedule on 51% of snaps (1st of 128). The defense allows +0.11 per play, 52nd of 128.
When it matters
Why it matters. Most close games turn on a handful of third downs and red-zone trips, so this is where good teams separate. Youngstown State converts 57% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 84% of red-zone trips (FCS average 60%), 2nd of 128.
Special teams
Why it matters. Special teams swing field position and decide a few close games every season, and almost none of it shows up in a box score. Its special teams as a whole rank 70th of 128, worth -0.38 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is field goals, 22nd of 128.
Tendencies
Why it matters. How a team calls its plays by down and distance is what opposing coaches study all week. Youngstown State throws on 49% of early downs; the FCS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Pace changes how many chances both teams get, and the line of scrimmage decides whether the quarterback has time and the runners have room. It runs 65.8 plays a game (FCS average 64.4). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 4.0% of dropbacks, 38th of 128, and 16% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 18th of 128.
Who they have played
Why it matters. The same numbers mean more against good teams; splitting them by opponent shows whether a team holds up when the schedule gets hard. Youngstown State's schedule ranks 151st of 266 in strength, 6th toughest of 9 in the MVFC.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Teams that win a lot of coin-flip games rarely keep doing it, so the gap between expected and actual wins is worth watching. Youngstown State has 8 wins against 7.3 expected from its play and schedule, and is 1-1 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. How a team is playing now often says more about its next game than its full-season average. Youngstown State was 153rd in Power after week 2 and is 113th now; its best was 107th after week 6.
What is ahead
Why it matters. The schedule left matters as much as the games played; simulating it shows how much is still in reach. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Youngstown State averages 8.7 wins and almost never wins the MVFC.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Teams with similar profiles tend to play similar games, which makes them a useful way to read a matchup or a season. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Lynn Wyche-El, 18th of 988 receivers. The closest match in style and strength is Montana State.
