Villanova Wildcats 2026: the season story
Villanova is 6-4 and rated No. 187 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 184th, Résumé 183rd, schedule 220th toughest. Next: at Holy Cross.
Scouting report
Why it matters. The Team Index weighs how well a team plays and what it has beaten equally, so the gap between the two ranks shows which one is carrying it. Villanova is No. 187 of 266 in the Team Index and 3rd of 10 in the Patriot. Power, how well it plays, ranks 184th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 183rd of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. Single-game ratings separate a team that wins comfortably every week from one that keeps escaping. Villanova wins its games by 2.6 points on average, 44th of 128 in margin among FCS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Offense and defense are rated separately, adjusted for every opponent, so a team that wins with its defense looks different from one that wins shootouts. Its offense rates 38th of 128 in FCS (2nd in the Patriot) and its defense 55th of 128 (3rd in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Counting points per possession instead of per game takes tempo out of the picture: a slow team is not punished for having fewer drives. Villanova scores 2.71 points per drive (the FCS average is 2.16), 29th of 128. Its defense allows 2.37, 68th of 128.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Expected points per play captures what the scoreboard misses: a 9-yard gain on 3rd and 8 is worth far more than the same 9 yards on 3rd and 15. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.09 expected points per play (22nd of 128) and stays on schedule on 43% of snaps (20th of 128). The defense allows +0.09 per play, 42nd of 128.
When it matters
Why it matters. Most close games turn on a handful of third downs and red-zone trips, so this is where good teams separate. Villanova converts 42% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 62% of red-zone trips (FCS average 60%), 63rd of 128.
Special teams
Why it matters. Special teams swing field position and decide a few close games every season, and almost none of it shows up in a box score. Its special teams as a whole rank 52nd of 128, worth +0.36 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is field goals, 11th of 128.
Tendencies
Why it matters. How a team calls its plays by down and distance is what opposing coaches study all week. Villanova throws on 42% of early downs; the FCS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Pace changes how many chances both teams get, and the line of scrimmage decides whether the quarterback has time and the runners have room. It runs 59.4 plays a game (FCS average 64.4). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 5.0% of dropbacks, 68th of 128, and 22% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 84th of 128.
Who they have played
Why it matters. The same numbers mean more against good teams; splitting them by opponent shows whether a team holds up when the schedule gets hard. Villanova's schedule ranks 220th of 266 in strength, 5th toughest of 10 in the Patriot.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Teams that win a lot of coin-flip games rarely keep doing it, so the gap between expected and actual wins is worth watching. Villanova has 6 wins against 6.2 expected from its play and schedule, and is 3-3 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. How a team is playing now often says more about its next game than its full-season average. Villanova was 219th in Power after week 2 and is 184th now, its best so far.
What is ahead
Why it matters. The schedule left matters as much as the games played; simulating it shows how much is still in reach. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Villanova averages 7.4 wins and almost never wins the Patriot.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Teams with similar profiles tend to play similar games, which makes them a useful way to read a matchup or a season. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Omari Bursey, 34th of 930 linebackers. The closest match in style and strength is Yale.
