UTSA Roadrunners 2026: the season story
UTSA is 7-2 and rated No. 44 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 75th, Résumé 31st, schedule 84th toughest. Next: home against North Texas.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. UTSA is No. 44 of 266 in the Team Index and 2nd of 14 in the American Athletic. Power, how well it plays, ranks 75th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 31st of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. UTSA wins its games by 3.2 points on average, 72nd of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It is 0-1 against teams in our top 25.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 48th of 138 in FBS (6th in the American Athletic) and its defense 106th of 138 (9th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. UTSA scores 2.85 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 37th of 138. Its defense allows 2.46, 98th of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.14 expected points per play (68th of 138) and stays on schedule on 46% of snaps (55th of 138). The defense allows +0.05 per play, 98th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. UTSA converts 42% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 61% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 82nd of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 68th of 138, worth +0.69 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is punting, 28th of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. UTSA throws on 48% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 67.3 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks, 60th of 138, and 19% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 96th of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. UTSA's schedule ranks 84th of 266 in strength, 5th toughest of 14 in the American Athletic.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. UTSA has 7 wins against 5.2 expected from its play and schedule, and is 4-0 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. UTSA was 67th in Power after week 2 and is 75th now; its best was 54th after week 9.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons UTSA averages 8.6 wins and wins the American Athletic 7% of the time, the 4th best chance in the league. It almost never reaches the playoff.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is A'Marion Peterson, 49th of 575 running backs. The closest match in style and strength is Kansas State.
