USC Trojans 2026: the season story
USC is 7-2 and rated No. 18 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 30th, Résumé 18th, schedule 19th toughest. Next: at Indiana.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. USC is No. 18 of 266 in the Team Index and 4th of 18 in the Big Ten. Power, how well it plays, ranks 30th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 18th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. USC wins its games by 8.2 points on average, 44th of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It is 1-1 against teams in our top 25.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 21st of 138 in FBS (2nd in the Big Ten) and its defense 51st of 138 (13th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. USC scores 3.15 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 17th of 138. Its defense allows 2.56, 112th of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.29 expected points per play (8th of 138) and stays on schedule on 52% of snaps (7th of 138). The defense allows +0.05 per play, 97th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. USC converts 50% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 64% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 65th of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 20th of 138, worth +2.49 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is punt returns, 17th of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. USC throws on 51% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 67.2 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 3.7% of dropbacks, 29th of 138, and 20% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 115th of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. USC's schedule ranks 19th of 266 in strength, 5th toughest of 18 in the Big Ten.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. USC has 7 wins against 5.9 expected from its play and schedule, and is 3-0 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. USC was 12th in Power after week 2 and is 30th now; its best was 12th after week 2.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons USC averages 8.4 wins and wins the Big Ten 2% of the time, the 5th best chance in the league. It makes the playoff in 11% of them.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Trent Mosley, 10th of 988 receivers. The closest match in style and strength is South Carolina.
