Toledo Rockets 2026: the season story
Toledo is 7-2 and rated No. 72 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 64th, Résumé 66th, schedule 135th toughest. Next: home against Massachusetts.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. Toledo is No. 72 of 266 in the Team Index and 2nd of 13 in the Mid-American. Power, how well it plays, ranks 64th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 66th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. Toledo wins its games by 11.0 points on average, 37th of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 37th of 138 in FBS (1st in the Mid-American) and its defense 94th of 138 (5th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. Toledo scores 2.87 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 36th of 138. Its defense allows 1.89, 46th of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.13 expected points per play (71st of 138) and stays on schedule on 43% of snaps (101st of 138). The defense allows -0.03 per play, 60th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. Toledo converts 43% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 78% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 12th of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 107th of 138, worth -0.69 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is kick returns, 62nd of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. Toledo throws on 42% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 69.9 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 2.4% of dropbacks, 11th of 138, and 15% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 42nd of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. Toledo's schedule ranks 135th of 266 in strength, 10th toughest of 13 in the Mid-American.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. Toledo has 7 wins against 7.1 expected from its play and schedule, and is 3-0 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. Toledo was 58th in Power after week 2 and is 64th now; its best was 49th after week 5.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Toledo averages 9.6 wins and wins the Mid-American 35% of the time, the best chance in the league. It almost never reaches the playoff.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Andrew Zock, 2nd of 1709 defensive linemen. The closest match in style and strength is Virginia Tech.
