TCU Horned Frogs 2026: the season story
TCU is 4-5 and rated No. 50 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 34th, Résumé 70th, schedule 40th toughest. Next: home against Kansas State.
Scouting report
Why it matters. The Team Index weighs how well a team plays and what it has beaten equally, so the gap between the two ranks shows which one is carrying it. TCU is No. 50 of 266 in the Team Index and 9th of 16 in the Big 12. Power, how well it plays, ranks 34th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 70th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. Single-game ratings separate a team that wins comfortably every week from one that keeps escaping. TCU wins its games by 8.0 points on average, 48th of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It is 0-2 against teams in our top 25.
How they win
Why it matters. Offense and defense are rated separately, adjusted for every opponent, so a team that wins with its defense looks different from one that wins shootouts. Its offense rates 100th of 138 in FBS (15th in the Big 12) and its defense 6th of 138 (1st in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Counting points per possession instead of per game takes tempo out of the picture: a slow team is not punished for having fewer drives. TCU scores 2.00 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 100th of 138. Its defense allows 1.42, 14th of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Expected points per play captures what the scoreboard misses: a 9-yard gain on 3rd and 8 is worth far more than the same 9 yards on 3rd and 15. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.08 expected points per play (95th of 138) and stays on schedule on 45% of snaps (66th of 138). The defense allows -0.13 per play, 17th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Most close games turn on a handful of third downs and red-zone trips, so this is where good teams separate. TCU converts 44% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 61% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 82nd of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. Special teams swing field position and decide a few close games every season, and almost none of it shows up in a box score. Its special teams as a whole rank 17th of 138, worth +2.73 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is punt returns, 16th of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. How a team calls its plays by down and distance is what opposing coaches study all week. TCU throws on 52% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Pace changes how many chances both teams get, and the line of scrimmage decides whether the quarterback has time and the runners have room. It runs 64.9 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 6.7% of dropbacks, 98th of 138, and 17% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 64th of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. The same numbers mean more against good teams; splitting them by opponent shows whether a team holds up when the schedule gets hard. TCU's schedule ranks 40th of 266 in strength, 8th toughest of 16 in the Big 12.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Teams that win a lot of coin-flip games rarely keep doing it, so the gap between expected and actual wins is worth watching. TCU has 4 wins against 5.5 expected from its play and schedule, and is 1-5 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. How a team is playing now often says more about its next game than its full-season average. TCU was 55th in Power after week 2 and is 34th now, its best so far.
What is ahead
Why it matters. The schedule left matters as much as the games played; simulating it shows how much is still in reach. Across 10,000 simulated seasons TCU averages 5.4 wins and almost never wins the Big 12. It almost never reaches the playoff.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Teams with similar profiles tend to play similar games, which makes them a useful way to read a matchup or a season. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Kari Ashley, 3rd of 305 tight ends. The closest match in style and strength is Texas A&M.
