St. Thomas Tommies 2026: the season story
St. Thomas is 7-3 and rated No. 228 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 225th, Résumé 178th, schedule 261st toughest. Next: home against Drake.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. St. Thomas is No. 228 of 266 in the Team Index and 3rd of 11 in the Pioneer. Power, how well it plays, ranks 225th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 178th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. St. Thomas wins its games by 7.9 points on average, 27th of 128 in margin among FCS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 51st of 128 in FCS (2nd in the Pioneer) and its defense 98th of 128 (5th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. St. Thomas scores 2.64 points per drive (the FCS average is 2.16), 32nd of 128. Its defense allows 2.14, 52nd of 128.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds -0.04 expected points per play (67th of 128) and stays on schedule on 42% of snaps (31st of 128). The defense allows +0.13 per play, 72nd of 128.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. St. Thomas converts 43% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 78% of red-zone trips (FCS average 60%), 6th of 128.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 26th of 128, worth +1.72 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is punt returns, 14th of 128.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. St. Thomas throws on 41% of early downs; the FCS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 65.3 plays a game (FCS average 64.4). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 1.7% of dropbacks, 3rd of 128, and 20% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 73rd of 128.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. St. Thomas's schedule ranks 261st of 266 in strength, 7th toughest of 11 in the Pioneer.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. St. Thomas has 7 wins against 6.3 expected from its play and schedule, and is 2-0 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. St. Thomas was 244th in Power after week 2 and is 225th now; its best was 219th after week 8.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons St. Thomas averages 8.3 wins and almost never wins the Pioneer.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Nash Tichy, 176th of 1709 defensive linemen. The closest match in style and strength is Dayton.
