South Florida Bulls 2026: the season story
South Florida is 6-3 and rated No. 68 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 73rd, Résumé 81st, schedule 133rd toughest. Next: home against Memphis.
Scouting report
Why it matters. The Team Index weighs how well a team plays and what it has beaten equally, so the gap between the two ranks shows which one is carrying it. South Florida is No. 68 of 266 in the Team Index and 5th of 14 in the American Athletic. Power, how well it plays, ranks 73rd of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 81st of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. Single-game ratings separate a team that wins comfortably every week from one that keeps escaping. South Florida wins its games by 10.8 points on average, 38th of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Offense and defense are rated separately, adjusted for every opponent, so a team that wins with its defense looks different from one that wins shootouts. Its offense rates 95th of 138 in FBS (8th in the American Athletic) and its defense 30th of 138 (1st in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Counting points per possession instead of per game takes tempo out of the picture: a slow team is not punished for having fewer drives. South Florida scores 2.41 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 74th of 138. Its defense allows 1.46, 17th of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Expected points per play captures what the scoreboard misses: a 9-yard gain on 3rd and 8 is worth far more than the same 9 yards on 3rd and 15. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.08 expected points per play (94th of 138) and stays on schedule on 45% of snaps (74th of 138). The defense allows -0.01 per play, 68th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Most close games turn on a handful of third downs and red-zone trips, so this is where good teams separate. South Florida converts 38% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 57% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 99th of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. Special teams swing field position and decide a few close games every season, and almost none of it shows up in a box score. Its special teams as a whole rank 44th of 138, worth +1.49 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is kick coverage, 34th of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. How a team calls its plays by down and distance is what opposing coaches study all week. South Florida throws on 43% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Pace changes how many chances both teams get, and the line of scrimmage decides whether the quarterback has time and the runners have room. It runs 58.0 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 7.4% of dropbacks, 110th of 138, and 19% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 98th of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. The same numbers mean more against good teams; splitting them by opponent shows whether a team holds up when the schedule gets hard. South Florida's schedule ranks 133rd of 266 in strength, 14th toughest of 14 in the American Athletic.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Teams that win a lot of coin-flip games rarely keep doing it, so the gap between expected and actual wins is worth watching. South Florida has 6 wins against 6.4 expected from its play and schedule, and is 2-3 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. How a team is playing now often says more about its next game than its full-season average. South Florida was 28th in Power after week 2 and is 73rd now; its best was 28th after week 2.
What is ahead
Why it matters. The schedule left matters as much as the games played; simulating it shows how much is still in reach. Across 10,000 simulated seasons South Florida averages 7.7 wins and almost never wins the American Athletic. It almost never reaches the playoff.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Teams with similar profiles tend to play similar games, which makes them a useful way to read a matchup or a season. The highest-ranked player on the roster is C.J. Hicks, 60th of 1709 defensive linemen. The closest match in style and strength is Western Michigan.
