Oregon Ducks 2026: the season story
Oregon is 6-3 and rated No. 15 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 14th, Résumé 15th, schedule 10th toughest. Next: home against Michigan.
Scouting report
Why it matters. The Team Index weighs how well a team plays and what it has beaten equally, so the gap between the two ranks shows which one is carrying it. Oregon is No. 15 of 266 in the Team Index and 3rd of 18 in the Big Ten. Power, how well it plays, ranks 14th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 15th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. Single-game ratings separate a team that wins comfortably every week from one that keeps escaping. Oregon wins its games by 12.0 points on average, 32nd of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It is 3-1 against teams in our top 25.
How they win
Why it matters. Offense and defense are rated separately, adjusted for every opponent, so a team that wins with its defense looks different from one that wins shootouts. Its offense rates 22nd of 138 in FBS (3rd in the Big Ten) and its defense 25th of 138 (8th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Counting points per possession instead of per game takes tempo out of the picture: a slow team is not punished for having fewer drives. Oregon scores 2.69 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 51st of 138. Its defense allows 1.79, 36th of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Expected points per play captures what the scoreboard misses: a 9-yard gain on 3rd and 8 is worth far more than the same 9 yards on 3rd and 15. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.19 expected points per play (39th of 138) and stays on schedule on 45% of snaps (69th of 138). The defense allows -0.17 per play, 6th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Most close games turn on a handful of third downs and red-zone trips, so this is where good teams separate. Oregon converts 39% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 66% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 57th of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. Special teams swing field position and decide a few close games every season, and almost none of it shows up in a box score. Its special teams as a whole rank 47th of 138, worth +1.38 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is punting, 29th of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. How a team calls its plays by down and distance is what opposing coaches study all week. Oregon throws on 51% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Pace changes how many chances both teams get, and the line of scrimmage decides whether the quarterback has time and the runners have room. It runs 68.4 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 2.4% of dropbacks, 10th of 138, and 22% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 127th of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. The same numbers mean more against good teams; splitting them by opponent shows whether a team holds up when the schedule gets hard. Oregon's schedule ranks 10th of 266 in strength, 2nd toughest of 18 in the Big Ten.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Teams that win a lot of coin-flip games rarely keep doing it, so the gap between expected and actual wins is worth watching. Oregon has 6 wins against 5.5 expected from its play and schedule, and is 3-2 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. How a team is playing now often says more about its next game than its full-season average. Oregon was 60th in Power after week 2 and is 14th now, its best so far.
What is ahead
Why it matters. The schedule left matters as much as the games played; simulating it shows how much is still in reach. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Oregon averages 8.5 wins and wins the Big Ten 10% of the time, the 3rd best chance in the league. It makes the playoff in 37% of them.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Teams with similar profiles tend to play similar games, which makes them a useful way to read a matchup or a season. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Teitum Tuioti, 1st of 1709 defensive linemen. The closest match in style and strength is Ole Miss.
