Montana State Bobcats 2026: the season story
Montana State is 9-1 and rated No. 102 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 118th, Résumé 84th, schedule 174th toughest. Next: at Northern Colorado.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. Montana State is No. 102 of 266 in the Team Index and 1st of 13 in the Big Sky. Power, how well it plays, ranks 118th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 84th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. Montana State wins its games by 20.9 points on average, 3rd of 128 in margin among FCS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 3rd of 128 in FCS (1st in the Big Sky) and its defense 5th of 128 (1st in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. Montana State scores 3.61 points per drive (the FCS average is 2.16), 2nd of 128. Its defense allows 1.82, 25th of 128.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.21 expected points per play (4th of 128) and stays on schedule on 50% of snaps (2nd of 128). The defense allows -0.01 per play, 11th of 128.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. Montana State converts 47% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 71% of red-zone trips (FCS average 60%), 24th of 128.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 27th of 128, worth +1.69 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is kick coverage, 1st of 128.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. Montana State throws on 43% of early downs; the FCS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 64.0 plays a game (FCS average 64.4). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 3.0% of dropbacks, 19th of 128, and 14% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 7th of 128.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. Montana State's schedule ranks 174th of 266 in strength, 6th toughest of 13 in the Big Sky.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. Montana State has 9 wins against 8.2 expected from its play and schedule, and is 3-1 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. Montana State was 93rd in Power after week 2 and is 118th now; its best was 93rd after week 2.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Montana State averages 10.7 wins and almost never wins the Big Sky.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Seth Brock, 116th of 1709 defensive linemen. The closest match in style and strength is South Dakota State.
