Missouri State Bears 2026: the season story
Missouri State is 3-6 and rated No. 135 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 129th, Résumé 145th, schedule 115th toughest. Next: home against New Mexico State.
Scouting report
Why it matters. The Team Index weighs how well a team plays and what it has beaten equally, so the gap between the two ranks shows which one is carrying it. Missouri State is No. 135 of 266 in the Team Index and 9th of 10 in Conference USA. Power, how well it plays, ranks 129th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 145th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. Single-game ratings separate a team that wins comfortably every week from one that keeps escaping. Missouri State loses its games by 6.1 points on average, 111th of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Offense and defense are rated separately, adjusted for every opponent, so a team that wins with its defense looks different from one that wins shootouts. Its offense rates 104th of 138 in FBS (6th in Conference USA) and its defense 119th of 138 (8th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Counting points per possession instead of per game takes tempo out of the picture: a slow team is not punished for having fewer drives. Missouri State scores 2.12 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 93rd of 138. Its defense allows 2.75, 122nd of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Expected points per play captures what the scoreboard misses: a 9-yard gain on 3rd and 8 is worth far more than the same 9 yards on 3rd and 15. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.03 expected points per play (113th of 138) and stays on schedule on 41% of snaps (114th of 138). The defense allows +0.11 per play, 118th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Most close games turn on a handful of third downs and red-zone trips, so this is where good teams separate. Missouri State converts 37% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 46% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 132nd of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. Special teams swing field position and decide a few close games every season, and almost none of it shows up in a box score. Its special teams as a whole rank 111th of 138, worth -0.91 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is punt returns, 5th of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. How a team calls its plays by down and distance is what opposing coaches study all week. Missouri State throws on 46% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Pace changes how many chances both teams get, and the line of scrimmage decides whether the quarterback has time and the runners have room. It runs 62.2 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 5.6% of dropbacks, 74th of 138, and 18% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 89th of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. The same numbers mean more against good teams; splitting them by opponent shows whether a team holds up when the schedule gets hard. Missouri State's schedule ranks 115th of 266 in strength, 5th toughest of 10 in Conference USA.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Teams that win a lot of coin-flip games rarely keep doing it, so the gap between expected and actual wins is worth watching. Missouri State has 3 wins against 3.7 expected from its play and schedule, and is 1-2 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. How a team is playing now often says more about its next game than its full-season average. Missouri State was 105th in Power after week 2 and is 129th now; its best was 105th after week 2.
What is ahead
Why it matters. The schedule left matters as much as the games played; simulating it shows how much is still in reach. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Missouri State averages 3.8 wins and almost never wins Conference USA. It almost never reaches the playoff.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Teams with similar profiles tend to play similar games, which makes them a useful way to read a matchup or a season. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Isaiah Myers, 5th of 988 receivers. The closest match in style and strength is Western Kentucky.
