Duke Blue Devils 2026: the season story
Duke is 7-2 and rated No. 40 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 32nd, Résumé 41st, schedule 109th toughest. Next: at Miami.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. Duke is No. 40 of 266 in the Team Index and 7th of 17 in the ACC. Power, how well it plays, ranks 32nd of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 41st of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. Duke wins its games by 20.0 points on average, 8th of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 49th of 138 in FBS (7th in the ACC) and its defense 12th of 138 (1st in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. Duke scores 2.88 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 34th of 138. Its defense allows 1.29, 9th of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.15 expected points per play (61st of 138) and stays on schedule on 42% of snaps (110th of 138). The defense allows -0.10 per play, 26th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. Duke converts 42% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 65% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 64th of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 96th of 138, worth -0.18 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is field goals, 52nd of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. Duke throws on 43% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 67.0 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 1.1% of dropbacks, 2nd of 138, and 18% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 87th of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. Duke's schedule ranks 109th of 266 in strength, 16th toughest of 17 in the ACC.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. Duke has 7 wins against 7.0 expected from its play and schedule, and is 2-2 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. Duke was 38th in Power after week 2 and is 32nd now; its best was 27th after week 3.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Duke averages 8.1 wins and almost never wins the ACC. It makes the playoff in 2% of them.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Nate Sheppard, 6th of 575 running backs. The closest match in style and strength is Liberty.
