Central Arkansas Bears 2026: the season story
Central Arkansas is 3-7 and rated No. 200 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 195th, Résumé 230th, schedule 181st toughest. Next: at Eastern Kentucky.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. Central Arkansas is No. 200 of 266 in the Team Index and 6th of 8 in the UAC. Power, how well it plays, ranks 195th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 230th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. Central Arkansas loses its games by 2.9 points on average, 73rd of 128 in margin among FCS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 61st of 128 in FCS (4th in the UAC) and its defense 71st of 128 (6th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. Central Arkansas scores 2.35 points per drive (the FCS average is 2.16), 46th of 128. Its defense allows 2.50, 81st of 128.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.01 expected points per play (50th of 128) and stays on schedule on 43% of snaps (21st of 128). The defense allows +0.15 per play, 83rd of 128.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. Central Arkansas converts 43% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 42% of red-zone trips (FCS average 60%), 120th of 128.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 75th of 128, worth -0.57 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is kick coverage, 39th of 128.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. Central Arkansas throws on 41% of early downs; the FCS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 66.3 plays a game (FCS average 64.4). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 5.3% of dropbacks, 74th of 128, and 16% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 17th of 128.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. Central Arkansas's schedule ranks 181st of 266 in strength, 5th toughest of 8 in the UAC.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. Central Arkansas has 3 wins against 4.3 expected from its play and schedule, and is 0-3 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. Central Arkansas was 196th in Power after week 2 and is 195th now, its best so far.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Central Arkansas averages 3.8 wins and almost never wins the UAC.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Bryson Adamoh, 216th of 1841 defensive backs. The closest match in style and strength is Holy Cross.
