Cal Poly Mustangs 2026: the season story
Cal Poly is 4-7 and rated No. 227 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 224th, Résumé 233rd, schedule 203rd toughest. Next: at UC Davis.
Scouting report
Why it matters. The Team Index weighs how well a team plays and what it has beaten equally, so the gap between the two ranks shows which one is carrying it. Cal Poly is No. 227 of 266 in the Team Index and 11th of 13 in the Big Sky. Power, how well it plays, ranks 224th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 233rd of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. Single-game ratings separate a team that wins comfortably every week from one that keeps escaping. Cal Poly loses its games by 10.4 points on average, 96th of 128 in margin among FCS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Offense and defense are rated separately, adjusted for every opponent, so a team that wins with its defense looks different from one that wins shootouts. Its offense rates 86th of 128 in FCS (11th in the Big Sky) and its defense 105th of 128 (10th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Counting points per possession instead of per game takes tempo out of the picture: a slow team is not punished for having fewer drives. Cal Poly scores 2.27 points per drive (the FCS average is 2.16), 54th of 128. Its defense allows 3.07, 117th of 128.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Expected points per play captures what the scoreboard misses: a 9-yard gain on 3rd and 8 is worth far more than the same 9 yards on 3rd and 15. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds -0.01 expected points per play (54th of 128) and stays on schedule on 42% of snaps (32nd of 128). The defense allows +0.22 per play, 110th of 128.
When it matters
Why it matters. Most close games turn on a handful of third downs and red-zone trips, so this is where good teams separate. Cal Poly converts 40% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 59% of red-zone trips (FCS average 60%), 75th of 128.
Special teams
Why it matters. Special teams swing field position and decide a few close games every season, and almost none of it shows up in a box score. Its special teams as a whole rank 49th of 128, worth +0.58 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is kick returns, 28th of 128.
Tendencies
Why it matters. How a team calls its plays by down and distance is what opposing coaches study all week. Cal Poly throws on 45% of early downs; the FCS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Pace changes how many chances both teams get, and the line of scrimmage decides whether the quarterback has time and the runners have room. It runs 66.3 plays a game (FCS average 64.4). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 6.0% of dropbacks, 82nd of 128, and 19% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 58th of 128.
Who they have played
Why it matters. The same numbers mean more against good teams; splitting them by opponent shows whether a team holds up when the schedule gets hard. Cal Poly's schedule ranks 203rd of 266 in strength, 9th toughest of 13 in the Big Sky.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Teams that win a lot of coin-flip games rarely keep doing it, so the gap between expected and actual wins is worth watching. Cal Poly has 4 wins against 3.9 expected from its play and schedule, and is 4-2 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. How a team is playing now often says more about its next game than its full-season average. Cal Poly was 222nd in Power after week 2 and is 224th now; its best was 215th after week 7.
What is ahead
Why it matters. The schedule left matters as much as the games played; simulating it shows how much is still in reach. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Cal Poly averages 4.3 wins and almost never wins the Big Sky.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Teams with similar profiles tend to play similar games, which makes them a useful way to read a matchup or a season. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Tayvion McCoy, 79th of 988 receivers. The closest match in style and strength is Columbia.
