Buffalo Bulls 2026: the season story
Buffalo is 6-3 and rated No. 109 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 131st, Résumé 71st, schedule 130th toughest. Next: at Ball State.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. Buffalo is No. 109 of 266 in the Team Index and 5th of 13 in the Mid-American. Power, how well it plays, ranks 131st of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 71st of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. Buffalo loses its games by 2.1 points on average, 98th of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 111th of 138 in FBS (6th in the Mid-American) and its defense 111th of 138 (9th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. Buffalo scores 1.96 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 103rd of 138. Its defense allows 2.01, 59th of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds -0.01 expected points per play (124th of 138) and stays on schedule on 39% of snaps (133rd of 138). The defense allows +0.10 per play, 114th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. Buffalo converts 41% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 54% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 117th of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 16th of 138, worth +2.78 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is punting, 2nd of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. Buffalo throws on 42% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 72.9 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 4.2% of dropbacks, 43rd of 138, and 16% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 49th of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. Buffalo's schedule ranks 130th of 266 in strength, 9th toughest of 13 in the Mid-American.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. Buffalo has 6 wins against 3.9 expected from its play and schedule, and is 5-1 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. Buffalo was 117th in Power after week 2 and is 131st now; its best was 117th after week 2.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Buffalo averages 7.5 wins and wins the Mid-American 3% of the time, the 4th best chance in the league. It almost never reaches the playoff.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Chance Morrow, 60th of 988 receivers. The closest match in style and strength is Missouri State.
