Baylor Bears 2026: the season story
Baylor is 6-3 and rated No. 43 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 26th, Résumé 44th, schedule 62nd toughest. Next: at BYU.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. Baylor is No. 43 of 266 in the Team Index and 7th of 16 in the Big 12. Power, how well it plays, ranks 26th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 44th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. Baylor wins its games by 14.9 points on average, 20th of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 40th of 138 in FBS (8th in the Big 12) and its defense 23rd of 138 (3rd in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. Baylor scores 2.39 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 75th of 138. Its defense allows 1.35, 11th of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.17 expected points per play (50th of 138) and stays on schedule on 44% of snaps (82nd of 138). The defense allows -0.14 per play, 16th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. Baylor converts 40% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 59% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 93rd of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 6th of 138, worth +4.35 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is punt returns, 9th of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. Baylor throws on 47% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 75.1 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 5.1% of dropbacks, 61st of 138, and 17% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 65th of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. Baylor's schedule ranks 62nd of 266 in strength, 14th toughest of 16 in the Big 12.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. Baylor has 6 wins against 6.6 expected from its play and schedule, and is 0-2 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. Baylor was 32nd in Power after week 2 and is 26th now; its best was 23rd after week 9.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Baylor averages 7.4 wins and wins the Big 12 3% of the time, the 7th best chance in the league. It makes the playoff in 4% of them.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Gavin Freeman, 30th of 988 receivers. The closest match in style and strength is Penn State.
