Arkansas State Red Wolves 2026: the season story
Arkansas State is 4-5 and rated No. 82 of 266 in the Cheap Seats Index, from this season's games only: Power 95th, Résumé 117th, schedule 118th toughest. Next: at Coastal Carolina.
Scouting report
Why it matters. A team can rank high by playing well, by beating good teams, or both; the two halves of the index show which. Arkansas State is No. 82 of 266 in the Team Index and 5th of 14 in the Sun Belt. Power, how well it plays, ranks 95th of 266; Résumé, what it has beaten, ranks 117th of 266.
The season, game by game
Why it matters. A record says who won; a rating for every game shows how convincingly, and whether a team is steady or streaky. Arkansas State wins its games by 1.1 points on average, 83rd of 138 in margin among FBS teams. It has not played a team in our top 25 yet.
How they win
Why it matters. Knowing which side of the ball does the work tells you how a team is likely to win, and how it could lose. Its offense rates 88th of 138 in FBS (8th in the Sun Belt) and its defense 98th of 138 (8th in the conference).
Drive by drive
Why it matters. Points per drive is the cleanest single measure of an offense or a defense, because it ignores how fast or slow a team plays. Arkansas State scores 2.65 points per drive (the FBS average is 2.45), 54th of 138. Its defense allows 2.50, 103rd of 138.
Under the hood
Why it matters. Play-by-play measures show whether a team is good on most snaps or living on a few big plays, which tends to matter for what comes next. Adjusted for its opponents, the offense adds +0.11 expected points per play (78th of 138) and stays on schedule on 48% of snaps (34th of 138). The defense allows +0.15 per play, 130th of 138.
When it matters
Why it matters. Third downs and red-zone trips are where drives are won or lost; small edges here turn into touchdowns instead of field goals. Arkansas State converts 43% of its third downs and scores touchdowns on 68% of red-zone trips (FBS average 63%), 43rd of 138.
Special teams
Why it matters. A missed field goal or a long return can flip a close game; these numbers show which units help and which hurt. Its special teams as a whole rank 114th of 138, worth -1.20 points a game against an average unit. The best unit is kick returns, 10th of 138.
Tendencies
Why it matters. Tendencies are what opponents game-plan against: a team that is predictable on early downs makes the defense's job easier. Arkansas State throws on 48% of early downs; the FBS average is 45%.
How they play
Why it matters. Fast teams pile up yards and slow teams shorten games; the line decides how much of either actually works. It runs 60.7 plays a game (FBS average 65.5). Its quarterbacks are sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks, 72nd of 138, and 16% of its runs are stopped at or behind the line, 53rd of 138.
Who they have played
Why it matters. A great offense against weak defenses is not the same thing as a great offense; the splits show the difference. Arkansas State's schedule ranks 118th of 266 in strength, 12th toughest of 14 in the Sun Belt.
Record versus reality
Why it matters. Records built on close wins and lucky bounces tend to drift back toward how well a team really plays. Arkansas State has 4 wins against 4.6 expected from its play and schedule, and is 2-3 in one-score games.
Rise and fall
Why it matters. Teams change over a season through injuries, new starters and growth; the trend shows which way this one is moving. Arkansas State was 96th in Power after week 2 and is 95th now; its best was 92nd after week 7.
What is ahead
Why it matters. Playing out the rest of the season 10,000 times turns a schedule into odds: the most likely record, and how likely each goal is. Across 10,000 simulated seasons Arkansas State averages 5.3 wins and almost never wins the Sun Belt. It almost never reaches the playoff.
Top players and teams like them
Why it matters. Comparing a team with its closest statistical matches puts its season in context beyond the standings. The highest-ranked player on the roster is Dontrae Henderson, 128th of 1841 defensive backs. The closest match in style and strength is App State.
